College Running Back Primer
Getting you analytically situated with the next crop of RBs, plus some thoughts on evaluating production.
You might be used to familiarizing yourself with prospects closer to the start of the NFL Draft…or whenever the offseason begins to eat away at your sanity.
If you’re looking for running backs to watch throughout this coming fall, you’ve come to the right place.
This piece will be substantive and packed with relevant data points. I’ll also blend in some high-level thoughts centered around evaluating the position from both a real-life and fantasy football perspective.
Overview
Despite being just 19 years old, Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen is already a seasoned rusher, having recorded over 400 carries and 2500 yards on the ground. Since 2014, only 96 Power Five RBs can say the same (per PFF).
Allen has averaged 100+ rushing yards per game and 3.55+ after contact. Here are the only Power Five RBs since 2014 on that list:
Efficiency tends to simmer down with higher volume/samples. We typically “bake” this into our evaluations, but it also highlights another idea: Raw production and efficiency don’t necessarily blend to tell a story about every prospect.
What is a “good” or “projectable” RB? Are we talking about real-life impact, or value-added to your fantasy team?
If you told me a rookie would tally 200+ touches, my fantasy-brain would be intrigued. But from a strategical/front office perspective, I’d be concerned with your overall process and its deterrence to winning games.
Pass catching abilities enhance projections at the next level, but it’s not as simple as identifying high-YPRR profiles and praying future opportunities arise.
It’s important to consider both rushing/receiving, and equally important to mobilize raw volume vs efficiency within those facets of production.
What about games played?
Rachaad White’s NFL fate is still up in the air, but much of the juice stemmed from his receiving abilities as a prospect (2.61 YPRR and 40+ Rec YPG). The names in White’s vicinity below shouldn’t be taken lightly.
CMC? Alvin Kamara? Joe Mixon? Jahmyr Gibbs? Impressive, right?
Well, maybe his 15 career games matter in the grand scheme of things.
Christian McCaffrey: 38 G
Jahmyr Gibbs: 31 G
Joe Mixon: 25 G
Alvin Kamara: 24 G
Kenneth Gainwell: 17 G
Rachaad White: 15 G
Major differences between the Rachaad White’s vs Jonathan Taylor’s of the world. Analytical profiles require context and that’s all I can say with certainty.
Back to the 2024 RBs
Florida State’s Trey Benson is a certified bruiser.
Ironically, Benson has also played in just 15 games, but his limited sample as a rusher is comprised of grade-A dynamite.
Benson leads all qualified Power Five RBs in forced missed tackles per touch (0.48). This will certainly regress with a heightened workload, but Benson’s ability to shred defenders translates to success at the next level.
The following P5 RBs averaged 4.25+ YAC per carry and 1.00+ YPRR since 2014, min 150 attempts:
Trey Benson
Bijan Robinson
Travis Etienne
Rhamondre Stevenson
Javonte Williams
Keep an eye out for Trey Benson on Saturday’s.
Wolverines
Michigan RB Blake Corum was one of the nation’s top rushers prior to his late-season injury against Illinois.
The next man up in that backfield has also made a name for himself in Donovan Edwards.
Corum is smaller and the team’s premium ball carrier, while Edwards is more of a threat in the pass game. Funny enough, Corum distinguishes himself as a tackle-breaker, forcing a career 0.30 missed tackles per touch (Edwards at 0.18).
Both ran exactly 139 routes last season, but Edwards takes the cake with a career 2.26 YPRR. Among P5 backs with 200+ routes since 2014, Donovan Edwards finds himself inside the Top 10 in YPRR:
Remember our Rachaad White rabbit hole? Donovan Edwards has similar rushing/receiving efficiency while also having played in 8 more games.
Does this make Edwards a more desireable prospect? Hypothetically, if he were to at least “maintain” current output as part of a split backfield in 2023, would that lead to a greater level of certainty for production at the next level?
I don’t have a definitive answer, but here’s something interesting: Edwards has run >10% of his routes from the outside with a 6.0+ ADOT, while White finished at 6% and 0.0, respectively.
Among P5 RBs with 20+ targets in 2022, Donovan Edwards recorded the highest ADOT at 9.0. Bijan Robinson came in second at 6.8.
This Michigan team is said to have a great roster loaded with NFL talent. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards should be a fun pairing to watch this fall.
Buckeyes
Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson has the required skillset to lead this class if we consider his range of outcomes.
The Buckeyes finished each of the last two seasons with a Top 3 PFF team run blocking grade among P5 offenses. and they have the EPA to show for it:
QB C.J. Stroud is gone, and although the offense should still be good, their elite passing attack which opened up the run likely takes a hit.
Looking at PFF’s “Elusive Rating”, which attempts to quantify a runner’s impact independent of team blocking, TreVeyon Henderson finished 154th out of 169 P5 rushers with 100+ designed carries last year (37.0).
He still has that blend of efficiency and sheer production to remain encouraging. Henderson, Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker III are the only Big Ten RBs to average 3.7+ YAC per carry and 80+ rushing YPG since 2014, min 275 attempts.
TreVeyon Henderson sits nicely alongside the 2023 class and this next batch of RBs. He’s certainly a player you’ll have chances to watch this coming season.
Thanks for reading!