Impact of Quarterback Sacks on Skill Positions
Macro-level view on the extremes & fantasy takeaways
For better or worse, sacks are a quarterback stat.
Sure, offensive lines and opposing pass rushers matter (quite a lot). But QB tendencies taking/avoiding sacks have been shown to carry over from team to team, and even from college to the NFL.
Even the best can’t escape total pocket collapses, but some QBs have stronger “internal clocks” than others.
Sacks destroy drives, which certainly can impact a skill player’s opportunities.
Below we have qualified RB/WR/TEs from the 2019-22 regular seasons. On the graph is team QB sack rate (percentile rank) and a skill player’s fantasy points per game that year.
The threshold to qualify is arbitrary, so this isn’t 100% perfect process (higher rank = higher sack rate).
Funny enough, when combining all three positions together, there’s a stronger correlation using sacks than their team’s neutral pass rate on player production.
Wideouts isolated have a slightly stronger relationship with pass rate than sacks (still close). However, RB/TEs don’t budge- sacks are more influential.
Context matters
Just like blocking/pass rush, receiver separation and route running have a non-zero influence on sacks.
It’s difficult to isolate, but in the aggregate and over the course of a season, offenses from both ends of the spectrum tell on themselves.
Again, this is macro-level stuff. Good players get the ball more often, and there’s elite skill players with QBs that are bad at taking sacks.
But it’s interesting that some of the best WR seasons were in low-sack environments.
Where to pay attention
Bears QB Justin Fields held onto the ball for a long time while at Ohio State, and it was one of his biggest red flags throughout the draft process.
This habit hasn’t gone away through his first two years in Chicago.
There’s going to be a handful selected at the top of this year’s draft. Knowing sacks translate, certain individuals will directly be affected by a new signal caller, especially if they’re part of an organization’s future plans.
If you’re interested in a specific skill player, don’t ignore this aspect of one’s environment.
Thanks for reading!