The Post-Moore Cowboys
Offensive impact from Kellen Moore's departure & CeeDee Lamb thoughts
Never thought I'd be citing Newton’s Third Law in a football article but here we are.
“For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.”
Dating back to offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s lateral career move from the Cowboys to the Chargers, a healthy amount of discourse has centered around QB Justin Herbert. And rightfully so, given his physical tools and the perceived “training wheels” former play caller (and new Broncos coordinator) Joe Lombardi placed on the young gunslinger.
I don’t believe the “void” left in Dallas has received equivalent coverage. On offense, most of their staples remain constant (Mike McCarthy, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb).
But Kellen Moore’s absence directly impacts certain tendencies.
Neutral Pass Rate?
Moore began his OC duties in 2019, while McCarthy replaced Jason Garrett at the start of the 2020 season (same year Dak got hurt).
Dallas sported a net -2% pass rate over expected throughout Moore’s tenure, something that initially surprised me.
Its distant cousin ultimately may play a part in the over-guestimate of their pass rate and serves as a fundamental difference in the post-Moore era; that being pace of play.
Offensive Tempo
Dallas finished each of the last three seasons as a top-two offense in (average) plays per minute. In my opinion, this tendency right here is part of what led to an eventual “clash” of minds.
Mike McCarthy was interviewed in early March following Kellen Moore’s departure and had some noteworthy remarks. For example:
“Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up”, “but I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense.” (Dallas Morning News)
Aligning the numbers with McCarthy’s thoughts is interesting. The Cowboys haven’t thrown at some relatively elite rate as it’s implied- but they have played with elite tempo.
Because their offense has also been efficient, fast pace/scoring could be the externality associated with giving the defense some rest, as McCarthy suggests.
Assuming my attempt at reading between the lines is getting somewhere- McCarthy’s strategy wouldn’t be “overcompensating”, but rather a misjudgment entirely. Solely reducing pass rate, or, both passing/pace, could directly impact certain skill players.
According to 4for4, WR CeeDee Lamb was tied for third in targets per route run (28%) among wide receivers with at least 100 targets and 17 games last season. Trading Amari Cooper to Cleveland gave Lamb the keys to that pass catching unit.
Add in the slot work and high tempo passing attack and you get some pretty reliable fantasy volume.
On the other hand, Lamb sticking out like a sore thumb impacts his share of high value targets:
The addition of Brandin Cooks is another mouth to feed, but acts as some “relief” with those scoring opportunities.
Assuming Dallas really slows things down on offense, it will be important for CeeDee Lamb to see positive regression in the red zone in order to maintain elite 2023 fantasy status. If he’s a Bonafide WR1, let’s see some dominance in the short areas of the field.
Thanks for reading!