Tight Endonomics
The position's value goes much deeper than supply and demand.
Rob Gronkowski passed it off to Travis Kelce quite seamlessly. Both rest atop their position’s food chain, arguably the best TEs to ever play.
Funny enough, they’re also part of two recent dynasties; Gronk in New England, and now Kelce with the Chiefs.
Coincidence?
The following is Tight End WAR from 2022:
Goedert/Kelce faced off during the big game, and Evan Engram revitalized his career in Jacksonville, helping Trevor Lawrence secure his first playoff victory.
More coincidences, or something bigger?
Anyone that plays fantasy knows the struggle. Elite TEs are part of a small fraternity and if you want any exposure to it, you’ll need to pay up.
Unlike WRs, you don’t just “find” sleepers every year thru the draft (there’s even leagues allocating bonus points to TEs due to scarcity).
Whether it’s fantasy or real-life roster construction, hitting on TEs is a glorified dart shooting contest.
Nuts & Bolts
There’s a constant riff between “film” and “analytics” folks, especially in player evaluation.
I believe the TE phenomenon is best understood by compartmentalizing both worlds.
Contrary to fantasy bros, film/X’s & O’s aren’t solely interested in receiving production from TEs. Not many would turn down a savvy route runner, but if they can’t block, their usage and overall upside becomes limited.
Ideally you want one great at both, because who wouldn’t? At the same time, if George Kittle was made in a lab, all 32 teams would send in their orders.
Is there greater value in “spreading out” blocking/receiving abilities amongst a position room, or shooting darts for a TE1 who's great at everything?
Real Life Examples
Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington were a dynamic duo. They complimented each other well- Bowers the receiving threat, Washington a polarizing blocker.
Were they able to showcase their strengths because either one could reliably catch or block if needed?
Is running 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE sets) inherently valuable, or is an “optimal” pairing necessary for it to all function?
Look at the Chiefs. They ran a good amount of 12 & were effective as well (shocker).
KC isn’t the greatest example, since Mahomes/Kelce/Reid are all outliers, but it helps illustrate a macro-level idea.
We all know Kelce’s value as a pass catcher, but I’m interested in the quantitative impacts from Noah Grey/Joe Fortson and if their roles are less replaceable than we think, if you get where I’m going?
I’m sure the answers to every question are a combination of variables, but intuitively, it makes sense for an offense to run efficient 12 personnel. Giving opposing defenses a light or heavy dilemma puts them into a constant bind.
Go heavy on defense? Your slow LB gets Kelce in coverage. Light? Now it’s up to your small CB.
Darnell Washington might not be the most lucrative fantasy TE in this year's class, but depending on where he lands, he could be the most valuable.
Thanks for reading!